Learning and climate feedbacks: Optimal climate insurance and fat tails

We study the effect of potentially severe climate change on optimal climate change policy, accounting for learning and uncertainty in the climate system. In particular, we test how fat upper tailed uncertainty over the temperature change from a doubling of greenhouse gases (the climate sensitivity), affects economic growth and emissions policy. In addition, we examine whether and how fast uncertainties could be diminished through Bayesian learning. Our results indicate that while overall learning is slow, the mass of the fat tail diminishes quickly, since observations near the mean provide evidence against fat tails. We denote as “tail learning” the case where the planner rejects high values of the climate sensitivity with high confidence, even though significant uncertainty remains. Fat tailed uncertainty without learning reduces current emissions by 38% relative to certainty, indicating significant climate insurance, or paying to limit emissions today to reduce the risk of very high temperature changes, is optimal. However, learning reduces climate insurance by about 50%. The optimal abatement policy is strongly influenced by the current state of knowledge, even though greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are difficult to reverse. Once the mass of the fat tail diminishes, the remaining uncertainty is largely irrelevant for optimal emissions policy.     

The politics of employment liability

Employment liability is an important check and balance against employee harm at work. In practice, however, an inadvertent consequence of employment liability is a potential shift in power from organizations to employees that affects subsequent managerial decision making. In this Incubator, we discuss behavioral and attitudinal ramifications of employment liability at work. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does longevity impact the severity of traffic crashes? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers

Introduction: This article analyzes the effect of driver’s age in crash severity with a particular focus on those over the age of 65. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers around the world suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector. Method: We investigate differences in the severity of traffic crashes among two subgroups of older drivers –young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+), and findings are compared with the age interval of drivers under 65. Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by Spanish Traffic Authority. Parametric and semi-parametric regression models are applied. Results: We identified the factors related to the crash, vehicle, and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the crash being slight, serious, or fatal for the different age groups. Conclusions: We found that crash severity and the expected costs of crashes significantly increase when the driver is over the age of 75. Practical Applications: Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider there should be specific driver licensing requirements and driving training for elderly – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.     

水污染侵权中因果关系的认定

水污染侵权中的因果关系成立与否决定着民事责任的有无,对受害人的利益影响甚巨,关于因果关系的理论纷繁复杂,水污染侵权中的因果关系认定难度更大,试图在分析各种学说的基础上找到认定水污染侵权中因果关系的可行方法。     

探索环境经济政策的新举措——建立环境污染责任保险制度

随着环境污染事故的不断发生和公众环境保护意识的日益增强,环境污染责任保险制度在西方主要发达国家已经有了长足的发展,并且建立了一整套完善而严密的制度体系。与此相比,我国在该领域则处于起步状态,至今尚未全面建立实质意义上的环境污染责任保险制度。本文以实施环境污染责任保险的意义为基础,对我国环境污染责任保险制度现状及存在的问题进行了剖析,并提出了若干对策建议,以期推动我国环境污染责任保险制度的发展。     

煤炭行业推行安全生产责任保险作用及问题探讨

为了减少事故及其造成的损失，使企业不致因灾后赔付而陷人困境和摆脱“企业赚钱，政府发丧”的怪圈，在煤炭行业推行安全生产责任保险，把商业保险模式引入安全生产领域，分散转移风险，并运用保险行业风险管理方法，规避、控制和管理风险，强化事故预防，以达到安全发展、可持续发展的目标。笔者在认真研究有关政策法规，搜集整理相关资料，实地凋研考察的基础上，结合我国煤炭行业安全生产以及煤炭行业责任风险管理现状，对我国煤炭行业推行安全生产责任保险的作用以及试点省市安全生产责任保险实施过程中遇到的问题进行了分析探讨。     

环保新思维：绿色保险

我国现在正处于环境事故高发期，而环境污染损害赔偿是企业，甚至是国家必须面对的现实问题。然而单凭企业承担责任是力所不能及的，最终不得不由国家买单，给国家带来沉重的负担。这种情况迫切需要建立环境污染损害责任保险机制，即绿色保险，把赔偿引向社会化。保险本身就是一种救灾形式，因为它能分散风险，减少损失。针对我国的具体情况，建立适宜的环境污染责任保险模式才能平衡发展与环境保护的关系、在全社会牢固树立生态文明理念。     

河南省煤化工行业环境风险等级划分研究

基于目前国家建立环境污染责任保险制度的规划需求和河南省当前新发展形势需要,选择以河南省典型高污染、高风险行业(即煤化工行业)为研究对象.在对相关理论进行分析的基础上,识别影响河南省煤化工行业的环境风险因子,并确定指标的评估标准(权重及评分结果).遵照指标体系的建立原则,采用层次分析法,从内在性和外在性两方面因素构建煤化工行业环境风险等级划分指标体系,进一步将评分结果与环境风险等级比对,最终将煤化工行业的环境风险等级划分为5个等级,为河南省环境污染责任保险制度的建立奠定基础.     

Balancing environmental and industry sustainability: A case study of the US gold mining industry

Mandatory insurance requirements and/or mitigation fees (royalties) for mining companies may help reduce environmental risk exposure for the federal government. Mining is examined since the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory reveals that this sector produces more hazardous waste than any other industrial sector. Although uncommon, environmental expense can exceed hundreds of millions of dollars per development. Of particular concern is the potential for mines to become unfunded Superfund sites. Monte Carlo simulation of risk exposure is used to establish a plausible range of unfunded federal liabilities associated with cyanide-leach gold mining. A model is developed to assess these costs and their impact on both the federal budget and corporate profitability (i.e., industry sustainability), particularly if such costs are borne by offending firms.     

企业风险管理与经营效率：来自中国保险业的经验证据

本文从风险管理的视角对企业效率评估的数据包络分析技术进行了改进,探讨了风险管理与经营效率的内在关联,并以中国保险业为例,对1999年以来企业真实的经营效率水平进行了评估。结果表明：企业内部的风险管理能力对其经营效率水平的提升具有明显的影响,而且这种影响力正在逐渐加强。不考虑企业内部的风险管理水平将直接导致其经营效率的测算结果出现低估,2002年以后这种低估的程度越发明显,这可归因于同期保险企业开始逐渐重视提高自身的风险管理能力。以上结论也为企业如何在管控风险的同时提升经营效率水平提供了有价值的指导。